My bizarre addiction to market research

Hey there, solopreneur!

I’m back in Berlin.

And as I was sitting in a bustling Kreuzberg café yesterday, watching people rush by the window, something hit me like a freight train:

I've been trapped in testing mode for months with lots of experiments but no real commitment.

The short story: “Research and testing” creates the illusion of progress while your competitors are actually shipping products and making money.

The long(er) story:

After nearly burning out last year from my AI Solopreneur business, I knew something had to change.

I hadn't taken a single week off in seven years, and just when I finally was planning to take some time off, the FTX collapse happened.

Suddenly I was back in full-on grind mode digging myself out of that financial hole.

When I finally took my first moment to breathe this year, I found myself in a strange limbo – testing lots of ideas but never fully committing to any of them.

So I locked myself away and documented everything I've learned about decision paralysis and the hidden psychological traps of endless research.

Let me show you the 10 hard lessons I learned about why most entrepreneurs need to stop researching and start fucking building...

Data mimics progress (but isn't)

That dopamine hit from Google Trends or Ahrefs feels amazing. You're digging for gold that nobody else can see.

But that research high is just fool's gold. There's no finish line telling you when to stop analyzing and start building.

It FEELS like progress because your brain is absorbing information. But learning about business isn't building one. Just like watching UFC doesn't make you a fighter.

Before any more research, ask yourself. "What specific action can I take with this information TODAY." No clear answer. Close the laptop and build something instead.

Data ignores your passion MOAT

The perfect market opportunity on paper often becomes a soul-crushing nightmare when you actually build it.

I've built businesses I didn't love, and watching the revenue roll in while hating every minute was worse than being broke but excited about my work.

Your genuine obsession with a topic is the ultimate competitive advantage. You'll outwork, outlast, and outthink competitors who are just chasing trends.

This data point won’t show up in any research reports. And if you’re purely data-based you’ll probably ignore it.

But its one of the most important one’s to think about.

Optimists get rich. Pessimists get to be right.

Naval dropped this truth bomb, and it hit me hard. Optimists get rich. Pessimists get to be right.

I'm choosing delusional optimism over cautious research. Too many spreadsheets plant seeds of doubt, and doubt is where dreams go to die.

The best companies balance vision with focused validation.

I'm not saying do zero research - (that's reckless).

But keep it minimal, answering specific questions rather than endless exploration.

Remember, plenty of failed startups had perfect market research too.

The best ideas happen pre-data trend

The biggest opportunities emerge right before the trend lines appear on graphs. Your intuition might be picking up signals too early and subtle for the data to show.

The cautious researchers who wait for absolute confirmation always end up joining trends too late, when the gold rush is already crowded with competitors.

By the time something has enough data points to make a pretty graph, the early adopter advantage is already shrinking by the day.

Time to market matters even more today

AI has put everything into hyperdrive. What took years now happens in months or weeks.

While you're perfecting your 30-page research document, three competitors just launched minimum viable products and are already collecting real customer feedback.

I've watched it happen repeatedly…

Someone tells me about their amazing research project, and before they finish their slide deck, someone else has launched a scrappy version and is already scaling.

1x action creates 100x more data

The richest data comes from actually doing things, not reading about them.

Launching even a half-baked prototype gives you insights no market report can provide.

The real bottlenecks only reveal themselves when real people interact with real products.

Every launch humbles me. The problems I feared never materialized, while issues I never considered became critical roadblocks overnight.

One day in the market teaches more than a month of research behind a screen.

Action creates momentum, data doesn't

Every meaningful growth curve starts with that first push of momentum.

Ask yourself.

What's the smallest step I could take today to start the flywheel spinning?

There's a natural sequence to building that creates its own energy.

With research, there's no built-in momentum. Even when collecting feedback from potential customers, it creates an illusion of progress while you're actually standing still.

We are biased to see what we want to see

Our brains are pattern-matching machines with thousands of hidden biases.

When researching, we unconsciously cherry-pick data that confirms what we already believe.

We might find compelling market data but talk ourselves out of opportunities because they trigger our hidden insecurities.

To build purely on data, you'd need to be some kind of emotionless decision-making robot.

And last I checked, we're still messy, biased humans.

Never ask anyone for advice before you launch

I've killed dozens of promising ideas by seeking too many opinions too early.

Every person you ask carries their own fears, biases, and past traumas. When an idea is still fragile, even well-meaning feedback can crush it before it has a chance to grow.

Even experts have massive blind spots outside their specialties. Their caution might be perfect for their domain but completely wrong for your innovative crossover concept.

Seeking premature validation is just another form of procrastination.

You know what you need to do anyway (so just fucking do it)

If you're stuck in a research loop, get brutally honest. What are you avoiding.

There's usually something you absolutely know you should be building or launching, but aren't. Because you're scared of failure, judgment, or the discomfort of putting yourself out there.

If your heart rate jumped while reading that, this is your cosmic sign to close this newsletter and go build the thing you've been researching to death. You get one life. Act accordingly.

Data gives us a fake sense of control

Control-seeking perfectionism is both a superpower and a curse for entrepreneurs.

It helps in execution but becomes paralyzing in creation. The hard truth?

You never have the control you think you do, no matter how much research you compile.

Research creates the comforting illusion that we can predict outcomes, when business is really about navigating constant uncertainty with limited information.

Instead of clinging to spreadsheets for false comfort, embrace the chaos of creation and trust that you'll figure it out as you go.

Tbh I wrote this for myself more than anyone else. A note to get my ass in gear.

I'm not saying throw away all research. But I'm embracing the founder-artist mindset again.

For me, this means:

• Ship fast, research less

• Trust my gut over spreadsheets

• Leverage my trend-spotting instincts

• Stop second-guessing my vision

Some people genuinely need more data. But if you're nodding along to this newsletter, you probably need less.

Real wisdom comes from action, not analysis. The market will teach you everything you need to know.

On a persona note, I'm back in Berlin for the next 3 months and feeling completely rejuvenated. The energy of the city is exactly what I needed.

Turns out leaving the city actually made things worse for me. Another lesson I had to learn through experience, not research.

If you’re in Berlin and wanna meet up, just reply to this email.

I'm also planning to do an entrepreneur meet up, so if you're interested in that let me know!

Ole's Bookmarks

This is why I’m extremely bullish on building tech that reduces our time spend on devices. Rebuilding the social fabric of humanity sounds like a good goal to me.

Great video you can send to someone to start leaning the AI basics.

In times of abundance, conviction is all that matters

Joe Hudson’s podcast is a new favorite of mine. He’s doing live therapy sessions and it’s amazing to watch.

See you next week 🫡 

Ole